Thursday, 23 April 2015

Thoughts on Oil price for 2015 and beyond

1. The Saudi’s are pumping from strategic oil wells
2. A bigger income equality and rise to middle class in the developing world creates much bigger demand, it’s where China’s growth numbers keep coming from even as the west is declining.
3. Fracking is not economical viable in a few more years when all the easy stuff is gone and the first environmental problems pop up.
4. Inflation in general.
Deflation is only a local problem in certain communities that where lousy a decade ago. There’s more places where inflation is a bitch. 
Oil will be at 70 plus at year end, 90 by the end of next year and it will keep rising. 
All this CEO is talking the markets down so Exxon can do a few takeovers.
And there’s a even way bigger story that’s been under reported all over, and that’s the Saudi’s buying up huge oil field all over the world right now. 
They’re running low on oil and they’re pumping what they've got to lower prices to secure future income.
And why is nobody wonder why oil storage is rising in the US while it still needs to import oil?.....

Monday, 13 April 2015

Investing in Gold

1. Daily gold gains are capped at 1 percent (limit up) or 2 percent (expanded limit up).
2. Gold isn't allowed to have any follow-through rallies.
3. Gold is attacked at specific times -- 3 a.m. ET, pre-Comex and Comex open, NYSE open, London close, Comex close, 6 p.m. access trade open, and any opportune, thinly traded access markets.
4. Gold is attacked on all significant government data releases, especially the monthly nonfarm payrolls Friday report.
5. Gold is attacked on any ordinarily bullish news -- war, turmoil, economic crises, and Wall Street jitters.
6. Gold is attacked on all significant Comex option expiration and first-notice days, assuring that the maximum number of calls expire worthless, mitigating deliveries.
7. An attack on gold is frequently signaled by attacking either silver, HUI stocks, or both.
8. Flash crashes with no corresponding explanation always keep speculative longs stopped out or in losing positions.
9. New York and London are the centers of gold price suppression, so the London PM fix will be lower or no higher than $5 from the AM fix.
10. Comex margin changes, both higher and lower, are always to the detriment of gold longs.
11. Gold is never allowed to anticipate any bullish developments, nor is it allowed to be a barometer for currency largesse.

Saturday, 11 April 2015

Finding the right spot for position opening positions

Solution for such a common problem as finding the right spot for position opening is fairly simple – a confirmation candle. The first candle always triggers the strategy or indicator’s signal that informs you how you should open position according to the strategy rules. You have to wait for this candle to end in order to know what you deal with.

This is where most of inexperienced traders make a mistake. They think how signal is activated; they open position just to see the candlestick to go in the opposite direction. So, the first step is to wait for candle to close. It is so-called alert candle which alerts you that strategy conditions are fulfilled. Then it’s necessary to wait for confirmation candle to confirm everything’s fine. This is when you open position.

Use candlesticks in all the strategies and always wait for the second one to confirm the good signal you are receiving. If the signal is fake don’t open position. You should always wait for the second confirmation candle regardless of whether you use support and resistance lines, channels, pivot points or applying rules of any other strategy.

When I say confirmation, what I mean is waiting for the second day, following the signal day, to prove the move.

In other words, if a sell signal is given, traders who wait for confirmation, would take the trade on the third day, after the signal was created (day one), only if the day following the signal (day two), the instrument in question, closed below the signal day’s low.

There are ‘Four Corners of Confirmation’ that must be addressed at this

1. Waiting for confirmation takes patience…and can sometimes lead to missing a trade.

2. Missed money is always better than lost money. Even if waiting for confirmation means letting an opportunity slip by, it’s a whole lot better than jumping the gun into a losing trade.

3. Confirmation does not mean a trade is a sure thing. Pre-determined stops are vital to profitable trading and effective money management.

4. Even with confirmation, more work is required. Traders must take the time to research underlying fundamentals and news with every signal generated. Trading blindly on technicals is just plain stupid.

Here’s what it all really comes down to, waiting for confirmation can save you money and potentially increase your profitability. Why?

When a signal is ‘confirmed’, the market is saying Wall Street believes in the signal and a trend is likely to ensue.And that’s what it all really comes down to…knowing that a signal is more than volatility, something that happens all too often in today’s market.

I want to now take a moment to show you a chart where the ‘signal’ lied, and traders who jumped the gun, probably may be losing.

Signal called a Hammer. The signal is widely accepted as alluding to a pending reversal (the opposite of a Hammer bottom would be a Hangman top.)

Confirmation traders, however, would have never taken a position at all, and would most likely be very happy that they didn't, as of now. At the end of the day, waiting for confirmation is just good housekeeping, at least when trading from candlestick chart-derived signals.

Thursday, 9 April 2015

Moving the blog onward....

I am going to move this blog along, Rather than Tech which is my main interest I am very interested in the Financial markets. 

I am going to attempt to make some YouTube videos about trading. 

If you are interested this is the first attempt. This tries to explain how to read the Candlestick Charts, Using Alert Candles and Confirmation Candles to spot an ongoing trend and how to find an entry point for a trade.